BetTurtle Newsletter Thursday 5th May 2016

BetTurtle Newsletter Thursday 5th May 2016

Welcome

Welcome to the BetTurtle Newsletter for Thursday 5th May with the latest racing news, tips and a round up of yesterday's tipping results.

  • Uttoxeter where the going is Good-Soft and there are 8 races starting at 1:30pm to 5:15pm
  • Chester where the going is Good and there are 7 races starting at 2:10pm to 5:25pm
  • Newton Abbot where the going is Good and there are 7 races starting at 2:20pm to 5:35pm
  • Clonmel where the going is Good and there are 7 races starting at 5:30pm to 8:30pm
  • Carlisle where the going is Good and there are 7 races starting at 5:40pm to 8:40pm
  • Wincanton where the going is Good-Firm and there are 6 races starting at 5:50pm to 8:20pm

Racing News

View Our Daily Newsletter for today's racing news >>

Tipping Update

A great start to May with 3 from 3 NAPs winning and returning a £53.80 profit to a £10 stake. We have also had 2 from 3 NBs win with a £33.60 profit to a £10 stake. Lay bets continue to be profitable with 17 from 26 winning (65% strike rate) already in May and returning a £46.70 profit for a £10 lay. Back Bets have had 6 from 10 winners (60% strike rate) and an £8 loss to £10 stakes so far. Our website tips aren't doing so well this month and are running at a strike rate of 25% and backing all the tips (which we don't advise) would have resulted in a £560 loss, so stick to the Newsletter tips for now until we improve things. Channel 4 tips have had 3 winners from 11 (27% strike rate) and are running at a loss of £13 for £10 stakes. 

We are introducing some advanced analytics to improve the statistical information we provide on the website to help you find more winners yourself and to highlight areas where BetTurtle Tips have better strike rates and profitability. We are using this information to improve all of our tipping advice. We'll update you once these improvements are available. Thanks for your continued support and feedback, as we continue to improve BetTurtle.

Yesterday's Results

WINNER: We had a successful NAP win with Red Verdon priced at 5/2.
WINNER: We had a successful Lay Of The Day with Bakougan priced at 9/4F.
WINNERS: We had 3/5 successful back bets and 4/7 successful lay bets.
WINNERS: Our Channel 4 Racing tips had 1 winners, 1 seconds and 0 thirds from the 4 races we tipped in. Winners included: Somehow 8/15F.
WINNERS: The website had 8 winners, 10 seconds and 1 thirds from the 39 races we tipped in. Winners included: Mise En Rose 9/4.

Win Value Bet Results

Our NB bet was a non-runner yesterday.

NAP Chester 5:25 Red Verdon 1st 5/2 - held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, chased leader over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well
Chelmsford 5:45 Under Siege 6th 10/3F - towards rear, short lived effort entering final furlong

Each Way Value Bet Results

Newton Abbot 5:15 Antiphony 9th 8/1 - behind, blundered 2nd, ridden after 3 out, never a threat
Wetherby 8:30 Kara Tara Fell 7/2F - tracked leaders, fell 1st

Today's Tips

Channel 4 Racing Tips

Chester 2:10 Gateley PLC Original Legal Thinking Handicap (0-105) (2) 4yo+ View BetTurtle Racecard
DARK RED A gelding operation appears to have worked the oracle with 2 wins in 2 starts this season. Worth keeping on side with further improvement likely. We recommend an each way saver on What About Carlo who made an enocuraging seasonal debut at Epsom last time and should be competitive in this race.
Chester 2:40 Betway Huxley Stakes (for the Tradesman's Cup) (Group 3) (1) 4yo+ View BetTurtle Racecard
CANNOCK CHASE Concedes 7lb group penalty to rivals, but is a class act and can go close if fit enough on seasonal debut.
Chester 3:10 MBNA Chester Vase (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (1) 3yo View BetTurtle Racecard
US ARMY RANGER 4-1 for the Derby and the Aiden O'Brien yard has won this race 6 times in past 10 runnings. Confident choice. 
Chester 3:45 Boodles Diamond Handicap (0-100) (2) 3yo View BetTurtle Racecard
STORM RISING Solid chance based on two winning runs at Newbury (disappointed on final run last season). Ryan Moore an interesting booking on seasonal debut.

Win Value Tips

Our value bets highlight the horses we think have the best chance of winning at value prices (typically 2/1+).  Our NAP is the bet we are most confident with and NB is our next best selection at prices better than odds on. The Lay Of The Day is the horse we think represents poor value and has the most realistic chance of being beaten today.
NAP Wincanton 5:50 Kentucky Star (FR) 3/2 View BetTurtle Racecard
Looked a non-stayer over 3 miles at Cheltenham last time when starting favourite. This drop in trip will help and strong run expected.
NB Carlisle 7:10 Looking Well (IRE) 6/4 View BetTurtle Racecard
Fell at Catterick when favourite in February. Can build on previous promise prior to that and this sounder surface will help.
Wincanton 7:20 Vexillum (IRE) 3/1 View BetTurtle Racecard
Won 2 from 3 when last seen over hurdles last September. Worth a small interest returned chasing in a race that won't take much winning.

Each Way Value Tips

Our each way bets are horses at decent prices (5/1+) we think can go close to winning.
Newton Abbot 3:20 Gioia Di Vita 13/2 View BetTurtle Racecard
Ran second at Sandown latest following a 203 day absence. Should strip fitter and go close.
Clonmel 7:30 Double Fast (IRE) 7/1 View BetTurtle Racecard
Just beaten at Gowran last time when staying on too late. This extra couple of furlongs will suit and can be in the mix at the end.

Back or Lay Tips

We review the chances of today's short priced runners with a view to backing or laying them. Our NAP is the bet we are most confident with and NB is our next best selection at prices better than odds on. The Lay Of The Day is the horse we think represents poor value and has the most realistic chance of being beaten today.
LAY Uttoxeter 2:00 Cottersrock (IRE) 7/4 View BetTurtle Racecard
Showed improvement when winning at Kempton latest and steps up in trip today.  Up against a couple of unexposed types from decent yards and may find they improve past him.
BACK Newton Abbot 2:20 Whipcord (IRE) 7/4 View BetTurtle Racecard
Ran well on second start for Nicholls yard at Exeter last month and can build on that today. 
LAY Newton Abbot 2:20 Star Trouper (IRE) 2/1 View BetTurtle Racecard
Has best form in this race, but went off too fast latest. With hood and tongue tie retained there are concerns about horses attitude.
LAY Chester 2:40 Western Hymn 11/8 View BetTurtle Racecard
Form choice in this race, but best form on galloping tracks and Chester may not suit.
LAY OF THE DAY Clonmel 5:30 Pillar 2/1 View BetTurtle Racecard
Previously trained by Ralph Becket in the UK and concerns dropped into claimer on seasonal return. May need the race.
BACK Wincanton 6:20 Rainy City (IRE) 1/10 View BetTurtle Racecard
Should be able to trot round and beat today's rivals. 
LAY Clonmel 6:30 Tonkinese 2/1 View BetTurtle Racecard
Ran well on seasonal re-appearance last time at Dundalk, but not guaranteed to repeat that performance back on turf.
LAY Carlisle 6:40 Jovial Joey (IRE) 11/10 View BetTurtle Racecard
25/1 2nd over course and distance last time. This looks tougher and the stable is on the cold list.
BACK Wincanton 7:50 Water Willow 15/8 View BetTurtle Racecard
Starts hurdling career in modest contest for a top yard with Richard Johnson on board having had a pipe opener in a NHF race at Cheltenham following a break.  Should go close if taking to hurdles.

Winning Money With BetTurtle Racecards

We think our race cards are brilliant (we may be a little bit biased) and we are determined to help everyone that uses BetTurtle to learn their power. Here are a few handy tips to increase your chances of profit.
  1. The Horseshoes help you filter the best horses in the race. In general, too much RED and you should avoid the horse. The exceptions are for horses from Shrewd trainers (Gold Stars next to their name), hot trainers or jockeys (names with RED backgrounds) and horses that have attracted market support (GREEN horseshoe).
  2. The horseshoes may change through the racing day, as the vibes and markets change. Click on the STATS button and select the RATINGS tab for a live summary view of the horseshoes and a set of rosettes that show the horses we think are most likely to win at that moment in time based on form, current odds and racecourse vibes.
  3. Watch out for Shrewd Trainers (Gold Stars next to their names) , as they are trainers who have a habit of winning at decent odds in certain types of races.
  4. In the main, avoid cold trainers and jockeys (names with BLUE backgrounds) unless there is market support (GREEN market horseshoe).
  5. Be wary of our win tips if the market horseshoe is RED.
  6. Click the STATS and FORM buttons to see a wealth of information that can help you further.
  7. Hot trainers and jockeys (names with RED backgrounds) are enjoying an unusually high winner strike rate in the past few weeks and should always be considered.
  8. Provide us feedback by mailing us at feedback@betturtle.com

Puzzle Of The Day

Here's where we challenge you to see if you can use the tools we provide in BetTurtle to find the winner in this race, a race we think could spring a big price surprise as we have doubts about the favourite at this morning's prices. Mail us your thoughts/selection feedback@betturtle.com or tweet us @betturtle
We had no puzzle tip yesterday. Hopefully some of you found the winner, at .

Today's Puzzle Race Is Clonmel 7:00

View Clonmel 7:00 >>

 Some clues to consider: The current favourite in the race is Posing (USA) who at this morning's prices is 11/4. Won in first time blinkers last time, but up 6lbs in the weights and no guarantee blinkers will be as effective this time. Are there any less exposed, better handicapped or classier horses in the race? Turtle Hint:  Click here for the race card and click the STATS button and select HORSE to see what horses are better treated or less exposed. Mail us feedback@betturtle.com or tweet us @betturtle your thoughts/selection.

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