Trainers To Be Wary Of When Betting Favourites
- theturtle
- 30 Aug 2025
Trainers To Be Wary Of When Betting Favourites
Favourites on average win 33% of the time. However, there are trainers whose horses win significantly less than this benchmark and punters should be wary when betting their horses.
The table below shows the trainers with the poorest record with favourites in terms of overall strike rate.
To qualify the trainer must have had at least 100 runners starting as favourite or joint favourite between January 2021 and August 2025.
Compare these with the strike rates of the trainers with the best favourite strike rate and you can see a marked difference in strike rate outcomes.
Bad Luck or Something Else Amiss?
What is causing these significant differences in strike rate outcome? Bad luck or is there something else going on?
Below we break down the bottom 10 trainers in terms of strike rate performance by year to try and spot any tell tale patterns.
- Only 6 trainers (green) reached the industry benchmark of 33% in just 1 of the past 5 years.
- Out of 50 total attempts (10 trainers × 5 years), the target was hit only 6 times — a 12% strike rate.
- On 12 occasions (red), trainers had fewer than 1 in 5 winning favourites, well below the 1 in 3 industry norm.
- On 15 occasions (amber), results dropped below 1 in 4.
- Some trainers, like John Harrington and Marco Botti, have improved in recent years. Others — Denis Hogan, Ruth Carr, and Paul Midgley — consistently perform well below average.
Compare these stats to the top 10 trainers in terms of favourite strike rates.
The industry target was met 40 times out of 46 — an 87% strike rate, compared to just 12% for the weaker trainers.
Why such a gap? Is it bad luck, overrated horses, or trainers and jockeys not getting the best out of them?
That’s for you to decide. What is clear is this: some trainers’ favourites can be backed with confidence, while others should be treated with caution.
Where Can I Find Trainer Favourite Strike Rates?
BetTurtle provides statistics for trainer and jockey betting odds strike rates.
Click the (T) or (J) icon on the race card and the betting statistics will appear.
Be wary of trainers of jockeys who don't achieve the 33% favourite strike rate is the message from this article.
