BetTurtle Blog

The Curse of the Favourite: Why Backing the Market Leader Might Be Your Biggest Mistake

Every race has a favourite and backing it could be the quickest way to drain your betting balance.

Since 2021, favourites win 31% of the time on average.

The stats appear decent until you consider the following;

• Two out of three favourites lose.
• Backing £10 on every favourite since 2021 would have resulted in a £44,209 loss.
• The bookies know this and price favourites to make sure of it.

This article provides insights into why the favourite is not always the best bet and what to do instead.

Why The Favourite Is Not Always The Best Bet?

Overhyped Form
A horse can look unbeatable on paper, but closer inspection often reveals weak competition in previous wins or ideal conditions that won’t repeat.

Here is a real example, of two horses in a 7 runner field where according to the betting market only 2 of the runners had a serious chance of winning.

Horse A and Horse B had the following tipster comment and statistics.

Horse A

Tipster comment: Consistent form and proven ability suggest a strong chance for another victory today.

Horse B

Tipster comment: Respectable flat form, promising hurdles debut; can improve with cheekpieces refitted and new stable.

Based on purely these comments and statistics what odds would you have made horse A and B?

Horse A started as 2/9 favourite and was beaten by horse B at 4/1.

Public Money

Bookmakers shorten favourite odds because casual punters pile in. The horse doesn’t become more likely to win – it just becomes worse value.

Here are the statistics of heavily bet favourites since 2021.

A slight improvement from strike rate of all favourites from 31% to 33%, but still 2 out of every 3 lose.

Jockey/Trainer Bias
Punters flock to big names – think Ryan Moore or Willie Mullins – but even they don’t win every time.

The table below shows the statistics for trainers that have had at least 400 runners that started favourite since 2021. As you can see from the grand total they win 37% of the time and would still have resulted in a loss if you had bet on every one. Indeed Willie Mullins with an astonishing strike rate of 46% would have resulted in a £1,380 loss if you had bet £10 on each runner.

However, the statistics also reveal some trainers may offer better value than others based on returns.

A similar story applies to jockeys.

Top Irish jockey has an astonishing 50% strike rate on favourites, but still would generate a betting loss. Indeed betting top jockeys riding favourites would result in a £10,122 loss over the period.

Smarter Ways To Bet

1. Look for Value, Not Hype
   Don’t ask “Who will win?” – ask “Is this horse’s chance greater than the odds suggest?”
2. Target Each-Way Outsiders
   A 12/1 shot placing second can pay more than a favourite scraping home at evens. The blog article "How to make a profit betting each way" can help.
3. Specialist Angles
   Horses with proven course-and-distance records or who thrive in certain ground conditions often outperform favourites. Check out BetTurtle race card statistics for each runner.
4. Ignore the Noise
   The more the media hypes a horse, the less value there usually is. Focus on the quiet contenders.

Key Takeaways

Backing favourites feels safe. They win more often than any other horse – but rarely enough to make money long-term. The “curse” isn’t that they never win; it’s that their odds rarely justify the risk.

So next time you’re betting on the races, resist the easy option. The smart money isn’t always on the crowd’s darling – it’s on the horse everyone else overlooked.

Because in racing, as in life, the obvious choice is rarely the most rewarding.