BetTurtle Blog

BetTurtle provides a range of powerful tools, data and insights to make it easier and faster to study horse racing form.

At the heart of this is the BetTurtle horseshoe ratings system.

This article explores the horseshoe system BetTurtle has pioneered and provides statistics and insights on how to benefit from this unique system.

What Are The Horseshoes?

Using the top 3 pick ratings, with less than 2 red horseshoes will filter out the majority of losers each day on BetTurtle racecards.

BetTurtle uses 5 horseshoes that summarise the horses likely fitness, ability, suitability to conditions, tipster and racecourse vibes and betting market strength.

The horseshoes are colour coded;

Green - Good

Amber - Okay or unknown quantity

Red - Poor or risky

Due to the dynamic nature of BetTurtle, horseshoes can change state (colour) up until off time, as new information is acquired throughout the racing day.

Fitness Horseshoe

58% of races are won by a horse with a green fitness horse shoe rating.

The fitness horseshoe provides an assessment of whether the horse is primed to run a good race. A number of factors are taken into account, such as days since last run, trainer form, horses last performance, historical performance of the horse following a break, etc.

The stats below show that horses with a Green Fitness Horseshoe won more than those rated Amber and Red combined. Indeed, 58% of races are won by a horse with a green fitness horseshoe.

As there is often more than one runner with the different colour of horseshoes in a race, it is also worth looking at the overall win strike rate calculated using the percentage of winners divided by runners of each horse shoe colour.

The green fitness horseshoe significantly outperforms the other horseshoes and by more than a factor of 3 times compared to the red horseshoe.

Ability Horseshoe

80% of races are won by a horse with a green or amber ability horseshoe

The ability horseshoe assesses whether the horse has the ability to win today's race. The assessment uses past form, speed ratings, trainer statistics and pedigree information, etc.

The stats below show that horses with a Green Ability Horseshoe and Amber horseshoe are the ones to focus on in terms of winners.

In terms of strike rate, it pays to focus on horses with a green and amber ability horseshoe rating.

Conditions Horseshoe

93% of races are won by a horse with a green or amber conditions horseshoe.

The conditions horseshoe assesses the horse's suitability to today's race conditions. This assessment includes going, distance, jockey bookings, course type, draw, likely race pace, etc.

The stats below show that horses with a Green Conditions Horseshoe and Amber horseshoe are the ones to focus on in terms of winners.

In terms of strike rate, there is not as significant a difference between the different horseshoe colours, as there are with the other horseshoes.

Vibes Horseshoe

75% of races are won by horses with an Amber and Red vibes horseshoe.

The vibes horseshoe assesses how racing tipsters, newspaper articles, industry pundits and horse connections view the horses chance in the race.

The stats below show that the vibes horseshoe of all colours win their fair share of races.

In terms of strike rate, the green vibes horseshoe significantly outperforms the other shoes. However, as they normally start favourite, it is often worth opposing the crowd and looking for value using both the amber and red vibes horseshoe. Indeed, 75% of races are won by horses with an Amber and Red vibes horseshoe.

Market Horseshoe

84% of races are won by horses with a green or amber market horseshoe.

The market horseshoe shows how the horse is supported in the betting Markey. A green horseshoe means the horse is being heavily support, while a red horseshoe infers the horse is drifting significantly in the market or the betting odds suggest the horse has little chance of winning.

The stats below show that the majority of races are won by horses that are holding steady in the market.

In terms of strike rate, the green and amber are the horseshoes to focus on and account for 84% of winners.

Horseshoe Colour Totals

While focusing on individual horseshoes has it's merits, also looking at the number of horseshoes of each colour can provide interesting insights to consider.

Green Horseshoes

Horses with pick rank 1 and at least 2 green horseshoes have a strike rate of between 27.56% and 42.55%

In the diagram below, we have shown the number of winners with total number of green horseshoes versus the pick ranking score BetTurtle provides.

Horses with Pick Rank 1 or 2 and and at least 2 green horseshoes do particularly well in terms of winner numbers.

By looking at strike rates it is clear that horses with pick rank 1 and at least 2 green horseshoes have a strike rate of between 27.56% and 42.55%.

Amber Horseshoes

In the diagram below, we have shown the number of winners with total number of amber horseshoes versus the pick ranking score BetTurtle provides.

Horses with pick rank 1 and at least 1 amber horseshoe do particularly well in terms of winner numbers.

By looking at strike rates it is clear that pick rank 1 and 2, no matter the number of amber horseshoes, do particularly well.

Red Horseshoes

A horse with pick rank 1 and 0 red horseshoes wins 31% of the time.

In the diagram below, we have shown the number of winners with the total number of amber horseshoes versus the pick ranking score BetTurtle provides.

Horses with Pick Rank 1 or 2 and zero red horseshoes do particularly well in terms of winner numbers.

By looking at strike rates it is clear that pick rank 1 and zero red horseshoes is the standout statistic with 31% of winners.

How To Apply These Findings?

By using the BetTurtle filter and automated systems features, the statistics above can be used to quickly find candidates by using the horseshoe and pick rank filters.

For the novice filter or system user, we suggest you start with using the BetTurtle top 3 pick ratings with less than 2 red horseshoes, as this will filter out the majority of losers each day on BetTurtle racecards. .

You can then experiment by adding pick rankings, odds and 100s of other variables to refine your criteria further.

Click here if you would like to subscribe to BetTurtle to try out these features.

Watch this video to see how easy and quick it is to setup a BetTurtle automated system.