BetTurtle Blog

How to Find Winners at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival

The Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of National Hunt racing, attracting the best horses, trainers, and jockeys from the UK and Ireland. With four days of top-class action and races like the Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase, and the prestigious Cheltenham Gold Cup, bettors seek every possible edge to find winners.

This guide provides expert insight into the key trends, form analysis, and betting strategies to help punters maximise their chances of success at Cheltenham 2025.

1. Understanding the Course and Conditions

Cheltenham’s unique undulating course and stiff uphill finish make it one of the most demanding racecourses in the world. The ground conditions can significantly impact race outcomes, so monitoring the weather forecast is essential.

• Soft/Heavy Ground: Horses with proven stamina and form on soft or heavy ground should be favoured.
• Good/Good-to-Soft Ground: Speedier types that perform well on better ground will be at an advantage.
• Track Bias: The Old Course (used on Tuesday and Wednesday) tends to suit speedier types, while the New Course (Thursday and Friday) rewards strong stayers.

2. Key Trends and Statistics

Analysing trends from previous Cheltenham Festivals can provide valuable insights into potential winners. Some key trends to watch:

Age Trends:

• Champion Hurdle winners are usually aged 6-8.
• The Gold Cup is often won by horses aged 7-9.

Champion Hurdle Winners Age 2020-2024

Gold Cup Winners Age 2020-2024

Trainer and Jockey Records:

• Irish trainers Willie Mullins, Henry de Bromhead and Gordon Elliott dominate at Cheltenham.
• British trainers Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton and Paul Nicholls have there share of winners too.
• Irish jockeys Paul Townend and Rachael Blackmore have excelled in recent years.

Trainer Winners 2020-2024

Jockey Winners 2020-2024

Last-Time-Out Winners:

• 53% of Cheltenham winners had won their previous race before the Festival.

Last Time Out Winner 2020-2024

Course Form:

• Previous Cheltenham form is a strong indicator of success.

Course and/or Distance Winners 2020-2024

3. The Best Races to Bet On

While every race at Cheltenham presents betting opportunities, some races offer better angles than others.

Day 1 - Champion Hurdle (Tuesday)

The highlight of the opening day, the Champion Hurdle, often features established stars. Key factors: - Horses with previous Grade 1 form. - Winners of the Irish Champion Hurdle often perform well. - Favourites have a strong record.

Day 2 - Queen Mother Champion Chase (Wednesday)

The fastest race of the Festival, featuring top two-mile chasers. - Speed is crucial; horses with a high cruising speed perform well. - Recent form in the Tingle Creek or Clarence House Chase is a strong indicator. - Willie Mullins-trained runners have been dominant in recent years.

Day 3 - Stayers’ Hurdle (Thursday)

A test of stamina over three miles. - Strong stayers with proven form over the distance do best. - Past winners and proven Cheltenham form are key. - The Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham is a key trial.

Day 4 - Cheltenham Gold Cup (Friday)

The blue-riband event of the Festival. - Proven stamina is crucial – look for horses that have won over three miles or further. - RSA Chase winners from the previous year have a good record. - Strong staying performances in the King George VI Chase or Irish Gold Cup are positive indicators.

4. Betting Strategies for Success

Follow the Market Moves

Significant market movements can indicate confidence in a horse’s chances. However, be wary of hype-driven gambles and focus on well-backed horses from top yards.

The table below shows the betting market position of Cheltenham Winners from 2020-2024.

Each-Way Value

With large field sizes, each-way betting can be profitable. Look for horses with solid form that may outrun their odds.

Trainer Form

• Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, and Henry de Bromhead typically bring well-prepared horses.
• UK-based trainers such as Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson target specific races.

Analyse Sectional Times and Speed Figures

Understanding race pace can be key to identifying horses suited to the demands of Cheltenham.

5. Key Horses to Follow for Cheltenham 2025

While declarations are not final, some horses have already marked themselves as potential Festival stars.

• Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle) – Nicky Henderson's undefeated stable star will be hard to beat having won this race by 9 lengths in 2023 and is back to his best.
• Jon Bon (Champion Chase) – Another Nicky Henderson charge who has won 12 from 14 chase races including 8 grade 1s.
• Brighterdaysahead (Mares’ Hurdle) – Top class mare from the Gordon Elliott yard who was runner up in this race last year. Has improved since that run, including 2 wins in Grade 1 company already this season .
• Galopin Des Champs (Gold Cup) – Has won the last two runnings of this race for Willie Mullins and has won two Grade 1s already this season.

6. Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Overlooking Cheltenham Form: Many horses excel at Cheltenham and should not be ignored.
• Backing Too Many Favourites: While favourites often win, value can be found in closely matched contenders.
• Ignoring Stamina Requirements: The Cheltenham hill has caught out many horses that looked strong at shorter distances.

Conclusion

The Cheltenham Festival is one of the most exciting betting events of the year. By analysing trends, course conditions, trainer form, and key races, bettors can gain an edge when selecting winners. Stay disciplined, look for value, and enjoy the spectacle of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.