The Curse of the Favourite: Why Backing the Market Leader Might Be Your Biggest Mistake

- theturtle
- 23 Aug 2025
Every race has a favourite and backing it could be the quickest way to drain your betting balance.
Since 2021, favourites win 31% of the time on average.
The stats appear decent until you consider the following;
- Two out of three favourites lose.
- Backing £10 on every favourite since 2021 would have resulted in a £44,209 loss.
- The bookies know this and price favourites to make sure of it.
This article provides insights into why the favourite is not always the best bet and what to do instead.