BetTurtle Blog

As the National Hunt season picks up, punters are faced with a plethora of races with horses returning from lengthy breaks, first time hurdlers/chasers and a variety of autumnal weather conditions to contend with. This article provides some hints and tips to help you adapt your early season betting strategies.

Follow Horses Returning from Breaks

October and November mark the return of many top National Hunt horses who were rested over the summer. Trainers carefully manage these horses’ reappearances, often targeting early-season races for a gradual build-up. Horses making their seasonal debuts, particularly those from respected yards like Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, and W P Mullins, can be strong contenders when they’re running over suitable distances. Pay close attention to horses with a history of performing well when fresh—these horses often come in well-prepared and ready to make an early impact.

Key Trainer Strategy:

Trainers like Paul Nicholls and W P Mullins are known for having their horses ready early in the season. Nicholls, in particular, has an impressive record with fresh horses in early-season races.

Keep an Eye on Track Biases

October and November feature a variety of tracks, each with its unique characteristics. Some tracks, such as Cheltenham and Ascot, tend to favour certain types of horses and racing styles. Cheltenham, for instance, often rewards horses with staying power and the ability to handle the undulating course, especially when the ground is softer. Familiarising yourself with which horses excel at particular tracks can help you make more informed selections.

Using BetTurtle, you can view icons and statistics that show horses that have won over course and distance. The table below shows that previous Course and/or Distance winners have a distinct statistical advantage.

Key Courses:

• Cheltenham (November’s Open Meeting): Many high-class horses make their seasonal reappearance here. Horses that have shown solid form at Cheltenham or on similar undulating courses should be considered.
• Aintree and Wetherby: Flat tracks that can suit horses with a strong, steady pace. Look for proven track performers or horses that show stamina.

Factor in Ground Conditions

Autumn in the UK often brings rain, leading to softer ground conditions, which can significantly impact race outcomes. Horses proven on soft or heavy ground can hold a major advantage when conditions worsen, while those untested on softer ground may struggle, especially in longer races. Reviewing past performances on soft or heavy ground can help with decision-making, particularly for horses with proven stamina.

Tips on Ground Adaptability:

Certain pedigrees handle softer ground better than others. You can use the BetTurtle Sire statistics to view Sires progeny going records .

Look at Jockey-Form Partnerships

While it’s easy to focus on the horses alone, the role of a jockey is key, especially during the jumps season. Consistent jockey-trainer partnerships, like Harry Cobden with Paul Nicholls and Nico de Boinville with Nicky Henderson, can make all the difference. Some jockeys excel at particular courses, and understanding these patterns can improve your chances of finding winning combinations.

Notable Partnerships to Watch:

• Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden: This pairing has seen notable success, particularly with seasonal reappearances.
• Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville: Known for solid results, especially at Cheltenham and Ascot.

Target Handicap Chases & Hurdles

The early-season handicap chases and hurdles often offer excellent value for discerning punters. Many trainers aim for these races to take advantage of favourable weights, especially with young horses moving up in distance. Horses with solid recent form or an improved rating can offer excellent odds in these races, particularly if they show stamina and strong jumping ability.

BetTurtle horse type statistics show that improving, in form or unexposed types have a higher chance of winning than more exposed horses.

Strategy for Handicap Races:

Look for horses running off lower weights who have shown recent improvement or have come down in class. The shift in weights in these races can give horses just enough of an advantage to secure a win.

Track Emerging Talent in Novice Races

The National Hunt season’s novice races, both over hurdles and fences, often reveal future stars. Trainers use these races to introduce talented young horses. Following high-quality novice hurdles and novice chases can give you insights into horses that are likely to progress over the winter. Horses from powerful yards, such as those of Willie Mullins, who travel from Ireland to British tracks, are often worth a close look in these novice events.

Noteworthy Point:

If a novice from a respected stable wins comfortably, they’re worth tracking as they move up the ranks. Trainers like Gordon Elliott and Henry de Bromhead often have talented horses primed for these races.

Key Upcoming Races in October-November:

• Cheltenham Showcase Meeting (October): Early showcase races at Cheltenham give punters a first look at some promising contenders.
• The Charlie Hall Chase (Wetherby, October): A premier early-season race that attracts top staying chasers.
• The BetVictor Gold Cup (Cheltenham, November): This competitive handicap chase often brings together some of the most promising runners.
• The November Meeting (Cheltenham): Features several graded races and is often the first big target for high-calibre horses.

Final Thoughts

With a keen eye on these factors, the early National Hunt season can be highly rewarding. Success in finding winners during October and November requires a mix of studying historical form, understanding ground conditions, and keeping an eye on trainer and jockey patterns. By focusing on returning horses, adapting to ground conditions, and leveraging insights into jockey and trainer trends, you’ll improve your chances of profitable betting.