BetTurtle Blog

• theturtle
• 24 Oct 2020
• • Form Study
• • form study
  • handicap races

Large field handicaps (16 runners plus), especially the main events on a typical Saturday, are a puzzle that form study students love to solve. They offer the chance of big each-way priced winners combined with a large number of variables to consider.

This article provides a method to help speed form study to quickly create a shortlist of horses to focus on in these type of races. It uses statistics and data found at www.betturtle.com to help with the process.

We will use the following race as an example;

Step 1 - Check Past Race Trends

Focus on established handicap races with at least 10 years of race results. This way we can use patterns of past performance to gain an idea of the types of horses that win, age, odds, trainer and jockey trends, etc.

By using the column sort arrows on the BetTurtle trend tables we can quickly see the patterns of winners from the past 10 years.

• 6 from 10 runners had a recent run
• 7 from 10 winners had won over distance or course
• Winners were aged between 5 to 9 with 6 year olds winning 3 times.
• Winners carried between 10-0 to 11-12 with 6 from 10 winners carrying less than 11-0.
• Handicap rating ranged from 125 to 149 with 7 from 10 rated 130 or more
• Winning odds ranged from 13/8 to 20/1 with 8 from 10 priced at 8/1 or more.
• Only 2 from 8 favourites had won the race.

Step 2 - Phase 1 Elimination

Using the patterns identified in step 1, we can start to eliminate the unlikely winners using a few criteria.

• Remove horses older than 9 years old unless in the top 5 of the betting market.
• Remove horses at prices larger than 40/1 in the market as they are unlikely to win.

These rules eliminate 4 of the candidates.

Step 2 - Horseshoe Elimination

BetTurtle Horseshoes provide an excellent way to quickly filter the contenders in a race.

The following horseshoe tables show the horses to focus on in handicap races of 16 runners or more.

Ignoring the 5 green horseshoe statistic due to the lack of qualifiers, we can see that runners with 0 green horseshoes, 1 or less amber horseshoes or 3 or more red horseshoes have a poor strike rate.

They do win, but much less rarely so eliminating these horses makes sense with the exception of horses top 5 in the betting market or have a hot (trainer with a red background) or top trainer (denoted by the yellow comment next to the trainer name) in the race.

This eliminates 2 more horses 4 The Devils Drop and 13 Story Of Friends.

Step 3 - Conditions Elimination

Distance, going and class are the key variables to consider. Horses that have run several times with poor strike rates under today's conditions can be eliminated and horses trying conditions for the first time need to be carefully checked to see if they will be suited by the conditions.

In the image below, you can view the factors circled in red that raise concerns and amber circles denote those requiring further inspection.

Honest Vic is eliminated due to failing to win in 3 attempts at course and 6 attempts in class.

Champagne Court hopes rest on a 5 furlong step up in trip and drop in class, but poor course, race type strike rates plus a return from a 228 day break are off putting.

Lock's Corner is up in class and trip having won last 4 races. However, in a much tougher race has it to prove.

Ballon Onabudget has a poor strike rate for this type of race and this looks his toughest challenge to date, so will need to improve.

Flink is unexposed and steps up in trip which may. With both a trainer and a jockey that does well in these types of races is one for the shortlist.

Nevilles Cross has won last two, but has not had much of a break and steps up in class today. At short odds is worth taking on.

Cotswold Way is up considerably in trip which isn't guaranteed to suit and the trainers other runner looks much more appealing.

I'd Better Go Now has won 3 from last 4, but steps up in class and looks a short price with further improvement needed.

Goodbye Dancer overall hurdles strike rate off-putting in this type of race.

Step 4 - Shortlist and Decide

The final step is to review the final shortlist and determine the horses worth a bet.

As you can see we now have 4 runners remaining and the question is which ones of these are worth a bet.

Tobefair - As the 10 year trends show, won this race last year and is 3lbs higher, offset by a decent amateur jockeys 5lb claim. Should go well, but price looks a little skinny.

Minella Warrior - Last two runs have been poor, but hit form at this course last year in October. With trainer in great form could be worthy of an each way interest at odds of 20/1+. He also fits in well with the trends for the race.

Flinck - Looks a potential improver in the field with a trainer and jockey who know how to win at course. However, price looks skinny with improvement needed.

Sirobbie - Won at Uttoxeter last time and seems well suited to that course. Questions to answer at Cheltenham off career high mark.