Taking On A Horse Race Favourite

Approximately 67% of favourites lose. This is for many reasons including a false favourite, running below form, luck in running, beaten by a better horse, etc.

Finding races were a favourite is more likely to lose can be a very profitable avenue to pursue.

Here are some considerations on how this can be achieved.

How To Identify A False Favourite?

The first question to ask is, why is this horse the favourite?

Often the reason is the horse ran well last time, it has a considerable class advantage, it is from a top stable with a good record at the course or in this type of race, it has the most tipsters supporting it, etc.

However, looking deeper the shrewd punter can find out if there are any chinks in the armour of the favourite.

Questions to consider;

1. Horse Ran Well Last Time

Was the quality of the opposition sub-standard?
Was it a close finish?
Did the favourites in the race run below form?
Did the horse benefit from luck in running or the race pace?
Does the horse have a poor overall strike rate and poor consistency record?
How have horses in the race performed since?
Has the horse gone up in the weights or class today or running under less preferable conditions?
Has there been a negative jockey change?
Has there been a long break since the horses last race?

2. Appears to have a class advantage,

Has the horse returned from a break and may need the race?
Does the horse have future big race entries and this is a warm up for the main event?
Does the horse normally run at its best in higher class races or for higher prizes?
Has the normal rider been replaced?

3. Top Connections

Does the Trainer and Owner have a good strike rate at the course?
What is the trainers strike rate with favourites?
Is the stable jockey riding?

4. Todays Competition

Is there unexposed horses, especially from top or shrewd trainers in the race?
Are there horses having second or third runs since a break in the race that may show improvement under today’s conditions and with higher levels of fitness?
Is the likely pace of the race going to suit the favourite’s running style?

5. The Price

Many things can go wrong in a horse race and there are many reasons why a horse will lose, does the price reflect the risk?

What To Do If You Can’t Find A False Favourite?

As favourites tend to be at short prices and 67% will lose, you are playing with fire continually backing favourites. In most cases, leaving the race alone may be the safest option.

If the favourite wins then you were right and if it loses, you will learn something.

Backing favourites can be a winning strategy and in a future article we will provide some considerations on how to increase your chances of making this pay.

What To Do If You Find A False Favourite?

Once you believe you have found a false favourite and you could be right 67% of the time, then you can either choose to lay the horse on the exchanges, bet one or more bigger priced contenders or do both.

When looking for horses to take the favourite on with, consider the following;

Are there any unexposed horses with low mileage, likely to improve due to today’s conditions?
Are there horses that are improving or running consistently well, have run close up in the class of race on several occassions and have a good win strike rate?
Are there any top, shrewd or inform trainers and jockeys in the race that have a horse that may run better than last time or is open to further improvement?
If there are a number of horses vying for favouritism, the race may be too competitive and offer poor value, so is the reward worth the risk?

How Can BetTurtle Help Answer The Questions Above

At BetTurtle we are on a mission to help our customers improve the fun and profitability they get from horse racing.

We offer hundreds of statistics, colour coded information and icons, comparison tables, filters and information to help you find the answers.

We are also on a continual quest to make it easier and faster to answer these questions and continually invest in improvements.

Learn more about what we have to offer on our home and help pages.

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