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A horses suitability to the going conditions of a race is viewed as paramount to winning chances. This article explores the impact going has on UK horse racing results and how you can use BetTurtle horse racing data to provide a betting edge using these insights.

Whether firm, soft, or somewhere in between, going conditions can significantly impact the outcome of races, strategies of trainers, and the performance of horses. Understanding the nuances of going conditions is crucial for anyone involved in the sport, from trainers and jockeys to punters placing their bets.

What Are Going Conditions?

In horse racing, the “going” refers to the firmness or softness of the ground on the racetrack. The conditions are determined by a combination of factors, including the amount of rainfall, track maintenance, and overall weather patterns leading up to the event. Going conditions are classified into several categories, including:

• 1. Hard: Rarely used, as it poses risks to horses due to the extremely firm surface.
• 2. Firm: A fast and dry track, usually found in warm weather.
• 3. Good to Firm: A balance between firmness and softness, offering ideal conditions for many horses.
• 4. Good: Optimal for most horses and often seen as neutral, neither too fast nor too soft.
• 5. Good to Soft: Slightly slower than good, usually after light rain.
• 6. Soft: A track affected by significant rain, creating slower, more taxing conditions for horses.
• 7. Heavy: Very wet and muddy, making it extremely tough for horses to maintain speed.

Each track’s surface condition affects horses differently, depending on their build, running style, and experience on various ground types. While some horses excel on firm ground, others may thrive in softer conditions, and trainers must carefully plan their strategies based on these factors.

Impact on Horses

The going can have a profound effect on a horse’s performance, as it changes the way a race unfolds. Horses that prefer firm ground often rely on speed, whereas those built for softer conditions typically possess stamina and resilience. On firm ground, horses can maintain a faster pace, as the surface provides less resistance. Conversely, when the going is soft or heavy, horses must work harder, exerting more energy to push through the yielding surface.

Soft and heavy conditions tend to favour horses with greater endurance, as these surfaces slow down the race and demand more stamina. Horses with a powerful stride or strong hindquarters may find it easier to plough through softer going. In contrast, horses that rely on speed and prefer harder ground may struggle, finding their legs sucked into the mud or losing traction on slippery patches.

Impact on Race Tactics

The going not only affects individual horse performance but also race tactics and outcomes. Jockeys need to adapt their riding style and positioning according to the track conditions. In firm conditions, races tend to be fast-paced, with horses settling into their positions early. Jockeys might opt for a more aggressive approach, pushing their horses forward to gain an advantage early on.

In soft or heavy going, however, races unfold differently. Because the surface slows down horses and demands more stamina, jockeys often conserve energy in the early stages of the race, making their move only when it’s most strategically advantageous. The softer ground can lead to more dramatic closing runs, as jockeys wait to pounce when rivals are tiring.

Impact on Trainers and Race Entries

Trainers must take the going into account when selecting races for their horses. A horse bred and trained to run on firm ground may not perform well on a soft track, and vice versa. The ability to gauge the right conditions is a key skill in racing management. Some trainers will even withdraw their horses from races if the going isn’t favourable, recognising that their chances of success are diminished, and the risk of injury increases under unsuitable conditions.

This constant assessment also affects how trainers plan their horse’s racing calendar. Horses with a preference for firm ground may be targeted for summer races when tracks are typically drier, while those that thrive in soft going may be aimed at autumn and winter events, when wetter weather is more likely to prevail.

Impact on Betting and Race Outcomes

For punters, understanding the going is crucial for making informed betting decisions. A horse that has consistently performed well on good or firm ground may struggle in soft or heavy conditions, which can upset betting markets. As such, many bettors closely monitor weather forecasts and track conditions leading up to the race, adjusting their selections based on the going.

The going can lead to surprises and upsets, particularly when conditions change unexpectedly. For instance, a dry track turning soft after sudden rainfall can upend pre-race predictions, as horses favoured in the market may no longer have the ideal conditions for success. These shifts in going often create opportunities for value bets, especially on horses with proven form on less favourable surfaces.

Weather and Its Influence on UK Racing

The UK’s notoriously unpredictable weather plays a significant role in shaping going conditions, often creating last-minute challenges for trainers, jockeys, and punters. A sunny week can dry out a course, making it firm, while a sudden downpour can turn the track to soft or heavy within hours. Given the country’s climate, it’s not unusual to see races run in drastically different conditions within days of each other, which adds to the complexity of preparing for a race.

Additionally, some racecourses have different characteristics that make them more susceptible to certain weather conditions. For example, courses in the south of England may tend to be drier in summer, while northern tracks are more prone to rain, making them softer and more demanding. This regional variation adds yet another layer of complexity to horse racing in the UK.

Number of Races on Going Type

The graph below illustrates that, of the 6,268 races held in the UK between 2016 and 2024, 71-85% were run under going conditions classified as “Good” (including Good to Firm, Good, and Good to Soft). Meanwhile, 13-24% of the races took place on “Soft” ground (encompassing Soft and Heavy conditions), and 3-9% were run under “Fast” conditions (Hard, Fast, and Firm).

It should be no surprise to see that races run in Q1 (58% Jan-Mar) and Q4 (38% Oct-Nov) are run under Softer conditions. This compares to Q2 (15% Apr-Jun) and Q3 (13% Jul-Sep).

Impact of Going Conditions On Betting Market

There are many myths and legends suggesting that soft conditions lead to unpredictable betting results and frequent surprise winners. However, as shown in the following two charts, this is not the case.

Favourites (36-38%), second favourites (20-21%), and third favourites (14%) win a similar percentage of races regardless of the going conditions.

Similarly, winning betting odds remain consistent across different track conditions, ranging from 5.5 (9/2) for Fast going to 6.0 (5/1) for both Good and Soft conditions.

Gaining A Betting Edge With A Horses Suitability To Going Conditions

Determining a horse’s suitability for prevailing going conditions can be a time-consuming task, typically requiring a thorough review of each horse’s past performance under varying conditions.

BetTurtle simplifies this process by providing a range of statistics and insights to help you quickly identify horses best suited to today’s track conditions.

For instance, the BetTurtle Insights feature uses ticks (Proven), question marks (Unproven), and crosses (Likely Unsuited) to offer a quick visual guide to each horse’s compatibility with the going.

The results show that horses marked with ticks can offer a betting edge, particularly when they are available at better odds compared to horses unproven or unsuited for the race conditions.

Conclusion

Going conditions are a critical factor in determining the outcome of horse races in the UK, influencing everything from a horse’s performance and jockey tactics to betting outcomes. Whether firm, soft, or somewhere in between, the track conditions significantly impact how races unfold, and understanding these nuances is key for trainers, punters, and anyone involved in the sport.

While myths suggest that soft conditions lead to unpredictable results, the data shows that favourites and top contenders maintain consistent winning percentages across different types of going. This consistency provides valuable insights for bettors, especially when combined with tools like BetTurtle, which simplifies the process of assessing a horse’s suitability for prevailing conditions. By leveraging BetTurtle’s data-driven insights, punters can gain a competitive edge, particularly when identifying horses best suited to today’s going, potentially leading to more informed and profitable betting decisions.

In a sport where track conditions can change rapidly, staying informed and using data intelligently can make all the difference.