The Essential Factors To Consider In Horse Racing - Part 2
- theturtle
- 13 Aug 2023
Recent Form and Course Characteristics
In the first article in this series, we covered the essentials of understanding a horses suitability to going, distance and class.
We will now delve deeper into some of the other essential factors in horse racing form study.
Recent Race Form
Recent race form provides key insights into a horses fitness and performance levels.
Using the example below from www.betturtle.com, we will analyse some of the key considerations to explore when analysing past form;
Time Between Races
The date column provides the dates when the horse has raced.
In superscript, you can view the number of days since the horse last ran before the race in question. If this text is in green, then the horse had not run for more than 60 days which suggests the horse has had a break or has been recovering from injury.
It is useful to look at the period before and after breaks to gauge a view on the horses well being and overall performance levels.
Before the 2nd May 2023, the horse had made its debut 10th May 2022 (hence the 0 days since last run as the superscript value) and then raced 6 more times until 28th Sept 2022. The horse had an average of 24 days rest between each race and won one race 16th July.
For a first season flat horse this seems a normal racing programme.
Following a break over the autumn and winter, the horse re-appears 2nd May 2023. This was after a 216 day break and wins the race.
The horse then runs twice more with an average of 50 days between races.
We can learn the following from these insights;
- The horse has only had 10 races, so is relatively unexposed and could improve further as it matures
- The horse has shown it is good enough and competitive enough to win a race
- The horse was fit enough to win after a break, but the runs since have not been so good.
- The average time between races has increased based on the previous year. Has the horse developed a problem since winning on seasonal debut?
Race Performance
Analysing the performance of a horse over a series of races is the next key factor to consider.
We can use the Key and Position (Pos) column for this purpose.
Using the key column we can quickly see that in the 10 races the horse has run, it has put up good performances in 5 of those (50%), ran okay 4 times (40%) and run poorly in only 1 race (10%).
4 of the races (40%), have been marked as strong races, where several runners in the race have performed well subsequently. This suggests that the form in those races can be relied upon.
The horse has also raced at two top class courses, Newmarket and York, which suggests the horses connections believe the horse has potential.
The Position column (POS), provides details on the horses finishing position in the race relative to the number of runners. In superscript, is the distance behind the race winner or in the case of finishing first, the distance to the second placed horse in lengths.
We can learn the following from these insights;
- Up until the last two runs, the horse has been a pretty consistent performer
- Connections believe the horse is capable of running against reasonably strong opposition
- The horses last two performances require further analysis to determine why the horse has struggled in those races
Course and Surface Suitability
Horses often have a preference for race courses, race course characteristics and race course surfaces.
As you can see from the image above the horse has raced at 9 different race courses in 10 races. With today's course, Leicester, another new course. This suggests the horse is flexible and can perform on a range of course types including galloping and sharp courses. You can click on the course name to view the race course characteristics using www.betturtle.com. The horse has also run on both Turf and all weather Tapeta once again showcasing flexibility.
7 of the horses runs have been on left handed courses, the letter L in the brackets denotes this. The only attempt at a right handed course, today's course is right handed, ended with the horse finishing last of 3 runners.
We can glean the following from these insights;
- The horse appears flexible with regard to race course conditions and surfaces
- Having only run once on a right handed course, there are questions to be answered on suitability
Conclusion
Exploring a horses past performances, analysing a sequence of races and considering course and surface characteristics, provides further evidence and questions to consider how a horse is likely to perform under today's race conditions. These factors can help a bettor to decide whether a horse is a risky or good betting proposition.
