BetTurtle Blog

In a horse race, punters face the classic dilemma: stick with the favourite or take a chance on the outsider? While favourites often have the odds in their favour, dark horses can deliver big payouts. In this comprehensive guide, we'll explore the nuances of backing the outsider, helping you make smarter, more informed bets.

Who Are the Favourites?

The favourite in a race is the horse deemed most likely to win, based on factors like recent form, trainer, jockey, and market sentiment. Their odds are typically shorter, meaning a smaller payout for a winning bet. For example, a horse with odds of 2/1 is considered a strong contender, with a £10 bet returning £30 (£20 winnings plus the £10 stake).

The table below shows that favourites win approximately 30% of the time, but betting them without due consideration can lead to serious losses.

What Makes an Outsider?

Outsiders, or "dark horses," are those perceived as unlikely to win. Their odds are much longer, often in double or triple digits, making them high-risk but potentially high-reward options. For instance, a horse with odds of 50/1 may seem like a long shot, but if it wins, a £10 bet would yield £510 (£500 winnings plus the £10 stake).

The Psychology of Betting

Why Do Punters Back Favourites?

1. Perceived Safety: Favourites often have a proven track record, making them a "safer" choice.
2. Influence of Tipsters: Many bettors rely on expert advice, which frequently leans toward favourites.
3. Market Momentum: As more people bet on a horse, its odds shorten, reinforcing its status as the favourite.

Why Do Some Prefer Outsiders?

1. Chasing Big Wins: The potential for a life-changing payout is enticing.
2. Emotional Attachment: Stories of underdogs resonate, creating an emotional incentive to bet on them.
3. Contrarian Thinking: Some bettors deliberately avoid the herd mentality, seeking value where others do not.

When to Back the Favourite

Favourites often win more races than outsiders, but not all favourites are equal. Here are some scenarios where backing the favourite makes sense:

1. When the Favourite Is Overwhelmingly Strong

• Look for horses with consistent top performances in recent races.
• Check for standout attributes such as a top jockey or a top trainer.
• Example: In the Cheltenham Gold Cup, dominant favourites like Best Mate or Kauto Star had strong records leading into their victories.
• Example: Top jockeys and top trainers have a higher strike rate and better returns with favourites. You can view top jockey and trainers on the racecards at www.betturtle.com.

2. When Conditions Suit the Favourite

• Analyse the "going" (track condition) and the distance.
• If the favourite has excelled in similar conditions before, it’s a safer bet.
• Example: www.betturtle.com Insights feature provides an overview of how each horse in a race measures up against key race condition characteristics.

3. In Small Fields

• With fewer runners, there’s less unpredictability. Favourites are more likely to deliver in these scenarios.
• Example: Here are the statistics for favourite performance based on the number of runners in a race. Note that in the main, the strike rate reduces as the number of runners increases.

When to Back the Dark Horse

Backing an outsider isn’t just about blind optimism; it requires strategic thinking. Here’s when it might pay to bet on the underdog:

1. In Handicaps

• Handicap races aim to level the playing field by assigning weights based on ability. This increases the chance of an outsider causing an upset.
• Look for horses with improving form or favourable weights that might outperform their odds.
• Example: From the table below the strike rate of favourites in handicaps is significantly lower compared to non-handicaps.

2. On Changing Ground

• If the weather alters the track condition (e.g., heavy rain turning "good" ground into "soft"), some outsiders with experience on these surfaces may have an edge.

3. When the Favourite Is Vulnerable

• Analyse the favourite’s recent performances. Has it shown signs of fatigue or inconsistency?
• Outsiders with decent form can take advantage of a favourite that’s underperforming.
• Top Tip: You can find all the information and statistics you require to analyse horse form and performances at www.betturtle.com.

4. In Big-Field Races

• Events like the Grand National feature large fields and unpredictable outcomes, making them prime territory for dark horse backers.
• Example: Mon Mome’s 100/1 victory in the 2009 Grand National demonstrated the potential of an outsider in a chaotic race.

5. When Market Sentiment Skews the Odds

• Sometimes, a favourite’s odds are artificially shortened due to heavy betting, not merit.
• Look for value among outsiders with a credible chance, especially those trained or ridden by lesser-known but capable connections.

Analysing Form for Value

1. Study the Racecard

• Pay attention to the horse’s recent finishing positions, course and distance performance, and trainer form.

2. Assess Trainer and Jockey Impact

• Some trainers specialise in prepping long shots for big races. Similarly, an experienced jockey can make all the difference in tight finishes.
• Top Tip: www.betturtle.com highlights top (yellow comet), in form (red background) and shrewd trainers (yellow star) on the race card to make it easier to find horses that may provide a betting edge.

3. Consider Race Code and Race Type

• Choosing to back favourites over the jumps provides a higher strike rate than Flat races.
• Being selective about the type of races you back favourites in, such as Graded, Maiden or Other non-handicap races, can pay dividends.

Strategies for Betting on Outsiders

1. Each-Way Betting

• This reduces risk by paying out if the horse finishes in the top places. For a 50/1 outsider, an each-way bet can still deliver a significant return.

2. Look for "Springers"

• These are horses whose odds shorten dramatically before the race, often due to inside information or strong trackside support.

3. Diversify Your Bets

• Instead of backing one outsider, spread your bets across multiple horses to improve your chances of success.

4. Combine Favourites and Outsiders

• Use forecast or tricast bets to predict the top two or three finishers. Pairing a favourite with a dark horse can yield excellent returns.

Case Studies: Famous Dark Horse Wins

1. Foinavon (1967 Grand National)

Odds: 100/1
The race turned chaotic when a pile-up allowed Foinavon, an unfancied runner, to calmly avoid the chaos and secure an unexpected win.

2. Seabass (2012 Grand National)

Odds: 66/1
Though it didn’t win, Seabass, ridden by Katie Walsh, placed third, demonstrating the potential of outsiders in high-stakes races.

3. Norton’s Coin (1990 Cheltenham Gold Cup)

Odds: 100/1
Against all odds, this dark horse defeated a star-studded field, proving that even the biggest races can produce shock results.

Balancing Risk and Reward

Betting on horses, whether favourites or outsiders, is about balancing risk and reward. Here are some tips to manage your bankroll effectively:

1. Set a Budget: Decide on an amount you’re willing to lose and stick to it.
2. Bet Proportionally: Avoid staking large amounts on high-risk bets. Instead, allocate a percentage of your bankroll to each bet.
3. Keep Records: Track your bets to identify patterns and refine your strategy over time.

Conclusion: The Art of Backing the Dark Horse

Betting on horse racing is as much about intuition and experience as it is about analysis. While favourites are statistically more likely to win, outsiders offer the thrill of unpredictability and the potential for substantial payouts. By understanding the dynamics of each race, analysing form, and employing smart betting strategies, you can increase your chances of success, whether you’re backing the favourite or taking a punt on the dark horse.

The next time you’re studying the form, remember: every favourite was once an unknown, and every outsider has the potential to become a legend. The real question is, are you ready to back the dark horse?

Big Priced Winners at BetTurtle

www.betturtle.com often tips dark horse winners at starting prices up to 50/1.

Here are some of the latest big priced winners.

You can view all of the big priced tips that BetTurtle has picked in the Tipping Hall of Fame.