How To Find Contenders In A Horse Race Quickly
Finding the contenders in a horse race can be slow and painful at times. To help others, we describe a methodology and tools that can help speed the process and improve the quality of your form study.
In this example, we use the race card from the King George at Kempton Park 26th December 2023.
The tools and data are from our website www.betturtle.com.
Set A Races Filter Use BetTurtle
- Visit the BetTurtle Website. Select Races-Today's Cards from the menu.
- Click the filter races link and set the following filters. This will enable you to focus on the better quality races and the races we believe statistically you have the best chance of profiting from.
- For the Boxing Day 2023 example, the number of races will reduce from 77 to 20.
Check The Basics
Using 2023 King George field as an example, we check the basics for each horse in terms of course, distance, going and class suitability. We also consider, whether the horse is likely to improve, the consistency of the horses performances, market support and whether we had added the horse to our horses to follow notebook.
- We would bin (click the bin icon) Frodon as he is weak in the market and has questionable consistency and Shishkin who may not be best suited by the going and distance and has a red cross for consistency (he has also refused to race in his last 2 races).
Check Ratings
Next we check the ratings to assess how the horse compares to today's competition in terms of form rating and if it is a handicap race, whether the horse is well handicapped or not. We are more lenient with unexposed horses, as they may show improved form as a result of gaining experience and trying race conditions for the first time.
In the example below, we deem all 4 worthy contenders, but note that Bravemansgame is considerably ahead of this rivals on our ratings. With The Real Wacker a horse that could improve, however, 19lbs of improvement in a race like this will be a tall order.
Check Conditions
We then check the conditions tab and try and find any positives, negatives for each contender and any further binning we should do.
In the example below, we note that Bravesmansgame has a 2/2 record at the course and the other competitors have never raced at Kempton.
Check Form Stats
The form stats helps us see the number of runs a horse has had since a break, runs since a win and the last performance of the horse.
We would discount horses that have not won for a long time or have built up a sequence of losses. We are more lenient with horses that ran poorly last time on seasonal debut or have had only 1 or 2 runs since a break.
We note Hewick is making his seasonal debut in this race and decide to bin him, on the grounds that in a race of this quality winning first time out will be difficult.
Check Form Plus
- Click the Stats button again to refresh the horses.
- Click the Form Plus tab and we will drill deeper into the form of the remaining candidates.
- Allaho looks the standout, winning his last 5 races. With The Real Whacker having won 3 from last 4 and pulled up latest. Bravemansgame has not won in his last 4 runs, which is a concern.
- Click the Show All button to compare the detailed stats and form for each runner.
- The Real Whacker has been running in top Novice races last season and was pulled up in a good quality handicap chase race last time on seasonal debut. No doubt that was a prep race for this, however, will he really be capable of improving 19lbs to beat Bravemansgame? We think not, but he could be a worthy each way interest at the 11/1 on offer.
- Allaho is sent over from Ireland by top Trainer, Willie Mullins. A quick click on the 10 Year Trends tab, shows the trainer won this race in 2021. The horse has the quality to win this race, however, 0/0 going and course statistics and odds of 2/1 make him a risky betting proposition.
- Bravemansgame won this race last year and is likely to have been primed for this race again. The conditions look in his favour with 2/2 at course and 2/3 from on going. At 5/2 and question marks over other rivals he looks like the one to back. We click the love heart icon to add him to our betting shortlist for the day.
Conclusion
Hopefully this methodology will help to improve you betting strike rate and reduce losses/increase profits by spotting horses to avoid and those worthy of a bet. There will be surprises and horses you discount will win from time to time. However, applying this methodology or any variants you come up with, will help you learn and is a good step towards making your horse racing betting pay.
