A Technique For Identifying Horses Capable of Winning Handicap Races
- theturtle
- 14 Jul 2024
Handicap races are hard to solve, with theoretically every horse having an equal chance to win, based on the handicap mark allotted by the official handicapper.
Here is a technique you can use to identify if a horse is capable of winning the handicap race and can potentially be used for other race types too.
Below are the top 3 in the market for the 2024 Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.
By checking the form lines of each horse we can quickly spot the following;
Trooper Bisdee is the 6/1 favourite, has won last two races, makes his all weather handicap debut and looks likely to improve further stepping up in class.
Grand Providence (9/1) is a proven performer in this class of race and like Trooper Bisdee makes his all weather handicap debut.
Yashin (11/1) an Irish raider that has not won or been placed in a race since May 2023, however, has been running in higher class races.
The betting market is favouring Trooper Bisdee on the basis that he has won his last two races impressively and more improvement is likely to come.
BetTurtle Form Plus Tool
Using the BetTurtle Form Plus tool (click the horse Form button), you can determine if the horse has the ability to be competitive in today's race.
Click the HMD (median handicap mark) column to sort the numbers in descending order (high to low).
The HMD is a good indicator of the average ability of the horses that ran in a race and you can compare that to the horses performance in different races and against today's race.
In the case of Trooper Bisdee, we can now tell he has been competitive in races up to HMD of 81. However, the HMD of today's race is 90, therefore, considerable improvement is required to be competitive.
Grand Providence, has been placed at HMD of 96 once, but in the main has won or placed at HMDs of 89 or below.
Yashin, has won once at HMDs up to 102 and has recently been running in races with HMDs over 100. He looks the proven quality in the race.
Conclusion
Based on the 3 runners assessed, Trooper Bisdee could improve and win the race, however, 6/1 is arguably poor value. Grand Providence is capable of performing well, but looks priced about right. Yashin dropping down in class is the interesting one, as he is the quality in the field and at almost twice the odds of Trooper Bisdee could be a value bet.
Hopefully this method can help you find and quality check the horses you are interested in betting and in future articles we will explore other information offered by the Form Plus tool to aid your form study.
